The Strategy of Manipulating Conict
نویسندگان
چکیده
Two decision-makers choose hawkish or dovish actions in a conict game with incomplete information. The decision-making can be manipulated by extremists who send publicly observed cheaptalk messages. The power of extremists depends on the nature of the underlying conict game. If actions are strategic complements, a hawkish extremist (provocateur) can increase the likelihood of conict by sending messages which trigger a fear-spiralof hawkish actions. This reduces the welfare of both decision-makers. If actions are strategic substitutes, a dovish extremist(paci st) can send messages which cause one decision-maker to back down and become more dovish. This reduces his welfare but bene ts the other decision-maker. The hawkish extremist is unable to manipulate the decision-makers if actions are strategic substitutes, and the paci st is equally powerless if actions are strategic complements.
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